2Q26 Online Advertising Preview: Can More Revenue Offset Greater Cost Intensity?

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Online Advertising Preview: Can More Revenue Offset Greater Cost Intensity?

We have incorporated the aforementioned advertiser feedback in our revenue estimates

for 2026, as well as adjusted our cost base to reflect the jobs data set. In summary, this

translates into:

GOOG/GOOGL: With near-term Cloud and Search growth potential already

priced in, we worry about higher-than-expected mid-term CapEx leading to

downward revisions to our 2027 / 2028 EPS estimates. As such, we maintain our

Neutral rating and while leave our multiple unchanged. Overhangs around

disruption from ChatGPT ads and more AI integration in Search have waned, but

we do not see a catalyst to change direction positively on the horizon either. We

decrease 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts marginally, as a FX headwind offsets

improved YouTube outlook from checks. GAAP EPS come up by ~32% and ~21%,

respectively given asset mark to market in OI&E and 10-Q disclosures resulting in a

lower trendline for non-employee R&D costs that eclipse some of the impact from

disclosed SpaceX cloud lease deal, equity raise, and higher anticipated 2027

CapEx.

META: Reaffirming our Buy as we expect META should see upward EPS and

multiple revision during 2026 either through sale of excess compute / model

access or a ramp in Business Agent monetization. Increased 2026 & 2027 revenue

forecast by ~1% and marginally to reflect improved digital ad outlook and pricing

benefits, while GAAP EPS moves up by ~4% and down by ~8% respectively due to

changes to cost base and increased CapEx.

TTD: We see scope for 2026 revenue to bounce off lows from: 1) resolution of the

dispute with Publicis, 2) midterm election uplift, and 3) ad checks flagging

improved budget outlook for some consumer discretionary verticals. We increase