US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment: SemiBytes: AVGO, NVDA, ON, TXN/ADI, Gamma Rentals

Research evidence excerpt

US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment: SemiBytes: AVGO, NVDA, ON, TXN/ADI, Gamma Rentals

to these reports, ~10 Chinese firms already hold

U.S. licenses to purchase H200s, with Beijing's approval now the primary bottleneck. We

currently assume Hopper contributes only ~2% of C2026 revenues, or roughly $6-7B,

and see some upside to those estimates if China's stance continues to soften. That said,

we think the debate is becoming increasingly supply-driven rather than demand-driven.

H200 utilizes CoWoS-S, while B200/B300 utilize CoWoS-L, but both ultimately compete

for capacity within the same advanced packaging ecosystem. CoWoS-L is already seeing

strong pull from Blackwell, Rubin, AMD, and AVGO, while some AMD and AVGO

products are utilizing CoWoS-S, and any new Hopper chips would also need to compete

for supply with AMD's MI325/MI355. As a result, while we see upside to our current $6-

7B China Hopper assumptions, we think the bigger question is how much H200 capacity

NVDA can realistically allocate this late in the year rather than the ultimate level of China

demand. Please see our previous thoughts here and here.

ON continues to divest fab assets

Last week ON announced divestitures of its Tarlac and Mountain Top facilities (~8% of its

total manufacturing capacity by sq ft) as management continued to lean aggressively

into its “Fab Right” strategy, with a clear focus on footprint rationalization and

structurally higher margins. The lack of gross margin leverage has been a key point in

our thesis that has kept us on the sidelines here for quite some time, so every move like

this is in our view a step in the right direction. The ~$35M in targeted annual savings

(phased through ’27–’28) is modest in isolation, but the more important signal is the