US Aerospace & Defense: 2Q26 growth tracker preview and outlook

Research evidence excerpt

US Aerospace & Defense: 2Q26 growth tracker preview and outlook

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

US Aerospace & Defense Equities

Americas2Q26 growth tracker preview and outlook

Aerospace

Gavin Parsons

Estimating quarterly growth rates across A&D Analyst

We track organic growth rates of 44 companies and 80 segments to get a better picture gavin.parsons@ubs.com

of the underlying trends. We have in our tracker our forecasts for 2Q organic growth +1-212-713 2389

and the coming years as a reference guide for earnings. We also compare those growth Joao Santos

rates by sub-segment to their macro drivers. See our 2Q26 Earnings Preview for a Associate Analyst

detailed perspective ahead of earnings for each company of our coverage. Reach out joao.santos@ubs.com

for our tracker. +1-212-713 1437

Nicholas Labbadia

Commercial OE: UBSe up 20% yoy vs. up 13% last quarter. UBSe up 15% in 2026 and Associate Analyst

nicholas.labbadia@ubs.com

15% in 2027.

+1-212-713 5573

We model build rate of 41/mo and 8/mo in 2Q for MAX and 787,

respectively. Cirium shows 2Q deliveries of 127 MAX (3 from inventory) and 25

787 (6 from inventory). We model MAX build rates at 44/mo by 3Q26 and 47/mo

by year-end, and we see 787 ramping to 9/mo by 3Q26, and 10/mo by 1Q27, and

11/mo by 3Q27.

Commercial Aftermarket: UBSe up 16% yoy, vs. up 15% last quarter, vs. weighted

flight activity flat, down from up 2% in the last quarter. UBSe up 14% in 2026 and 10%

in 2027.

Aftermarket demand remains solid across the industry. We see no

aftermarket slowdown or impact from Iran/oil prices impact yet. We expect airlines

to continue to make fleet purchases and keep maintenance behavior unchanged.

Business jet: UBSe OE up 6% and AM up 7% (vs. up 12% and up 16% last quarter,

respectively). We model deliveries up 6%.