US Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology: Reading the Yee Leaves into Q2 EPS – LLY, ABBV, BMY, MRK, PFE, AMGN, GILD, VRTX, BIIB

Research evidence excerpt

US Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology: Reading the Yee Leaves into Q2 EPS – LLY, ABBV, BMY, MRK, PFE, AMGN, GILD, VRTX, BIIB

PFE: Focus for PFE is on near-to-medium term catalysts that could give investors new

visibility on sales growth to fill the $15B+ LOE hole coming.Stock has pulled back in

recent weeks following the B6A Phase III NSCLC failure in the 2L setting. We viewed this

as a risky study but it was one of two important readouts this year from the oncology

franchise (the other is Phase III EZH2 data in metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer

which is still expected in H2) and we note the company is still running a 1L study in

combination with Keytruda in PD-1-high patients and this is an easier setting for this

drug to work but the POS overall on this study is likely lower now. We thought updated

MTSR obesity data at ADA was mostly in-line where we think efficacy looks probably

"good enough" vs. other weekly GLP-1 injections with similar tolerability -- and

PFE could potentially differentiate on monthly dosing -- so this is a drug but it may be

more incremental in terms of helping offset PFE's LOE risk (see our note from ADA here).

Near-term -- catalyst focus should be on the EZH2 Phase III metastatic prostate cancer

data where we are more positive into the data based on promising randomized

controlled Phase I data showing 14 mo mPFS with EZH2 mevrometostat in combination

with Xtandi vs. ~6 mo w/ Xtandi alone. However -- there are two important risks for

investors to be mindful of on this Phase III study: 1) PFE is adjusting the dose in Phase III

vs. Phase I to use a lower dose administered with food which leads to a higher AUC and

lower CMax in Phase I PK data -- it is TBD how this different exposure profile translates to