Global Economics & Strategy Core Convictions (Multi-Asset Rundown)

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economics & Strategy Core Convictions (Multi-Asset Rundown)

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

Global Economics & Strategy Economics

GlobalCore Convictions (Multi-Asset Rundown)

Arend Kapteyn

Economist

All our views on markets in a single page arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

This 'core conviction' document is our weekly one-page multi-asset rundown where we

highlight key events in the week ahead and any view changes (see page 2). Bhanu Baweja

Strategist

bhanu.baweja@ubs.com

Highlights this week +44-20-7568 6833

Equity: The recent sell-off in AI capex and other crowded winners looks increasingly like

Shahab Jalinoos

a technical de-grossing event rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. As leverage

unwinds fade, earnings revisions remain a key support for performance, particularly in shahab.jalinoos@ubs.com

AI-linked themes where upgrade momentum is still strong. Our inclination is to lean +1-212-882-5532

back into AI and momentum. We would also reduce the European underweight, as

Matthew Mish, CFA

bottom up fundamentals are improving, and previously challenged sectors such as Strategist

pharma and luxury are stabilizing. matthew.mish@ubs.com

+1-203-719 1242

Fixed income: This week will be about navigating potentially lower than expected US CPI Manik Narain

(see our preview) and renewed geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices (we Strategist

stopped out of our long 30y Italian real yields and our BoE Dec ’26 receiver). We manik.narain@ubs.com

tactically take profits on US 2s10s steepeners and switch to receiving 3y4y swaps. We +44-20-7568 3635

also add a 10Yx20Y inflation swap long to our 5Y real yield long. Phoebe White

FX: USD long positioning is now well established and we favour waiting for a rebound to phoebe.white@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2130