Japan Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals: Earnings outlook for Apr-Jun results and model update

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals: Earnings outlook for Apr-Jun results and model update

Global Research

14 July 2026ab

Japan Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals Equities

JapanEarnings outlook for Apr–Jun results and model

update Pharmaceuticals

Atsushi Seki

Analyst

atsushi.seki@ubs.com

Daiichi Sankyo and Astellas may deliver strong earnings; Chugai depends on +65 6495 6860

Lilly’s Q2 results, while Otsuka faces potential sell-the-news risk

Mark Yokoyama

We update our earnings model ahead of the April–June quarter results and adjust our Analyst

price targets as shown in Figure 1. 1) We maintain Otsuka Holdings as our top pick and mark.yokoyama@ubs.com

raise our price target from ¥13,500 to ¥15,000. Reflecting better-than-expected two- +81-3-5208 6265

year eGFR data, we increase our estimate for Voyxact peak revenues from US$3.6bn to

US$7.2bn. While broad-based guidance upgrades are likely at the Q2 results

announcement and could lead to a temporary sell-the-news reaction, we believe

expectations will continue to build ahead of the October ASN meeting. Depending on

Voyxact performance, initial FY12/27 guidance may not imply an earnings decline. 2) We

expect Daiichi Sankyo’s Q1 core OP to exceed the VisibleAlpha consensus. CDMO loss

compensation is likely to be expensed in Q4, while Q1 should benefit from milestone

payments of approximately ¥15bn associated with three approvals. Generic erosion of

domestic Effient also remains slow. 3) We expect solid revenues at Astellas, driven by

strong Padcev sales and favorable foreign exchange effects, with the core OP margin

potentially exceeding 30% on a quarterly basis for the first time. 4) Although consensus

expectations for Chugai’s Q2 results appear somewhat high and we remain cautious