Avanza Strong Q2: Are positive revenue trends sustainable, and can cost growth slow?

Research evidence excerpt

Avanza Strong Q2: Are positive revenue trends sustainable, and can cost growth slow?

e

12/27E 20.86 20.18 -3 20.35

expected, but Avanza has not changed its 9% growth guidance for 2026E. Accordingly,

12/28E 22.21 21.34 -4 22.38

we have not changed our cost forecasts to reflect the observed H1 outcomes.

Haley Tam

Denmark: Thinking differently with new tech. Earlier than planned, thanks to AI Analyst

haley.tam@ubs.comAvanza has made no significant change to its previous guidance for the Danish launch -

+44-20-7567 6176

significant up front cost spend (SEK 120-150m until launch in 2H 2027) and ongoing

annual costs of SEK 80m plus SEK 60m marketing expenses in the first three years, Amit Jagadeesh

including SEK 50m in 2027. In H1, Avanza incurred SEK 3m of these costs. It expects Analyst

amit.jagadeesh@ubs.com

Denmark to be profitable within 5 years of launch. The decision to build a new separate

+44-20-7567 9705

platform, rather than scale the existing Swedish one, has been controversial, and Avanza

provided additional colour on this decision on the Q2 analyst call, highlighting that Johan Ekblom, CFA

AI has enabled it to bring forward initial plans for international expansion, thanks to the Analyst

johan.ekblom@ubs.com

ability to build a new platform without disrupting Swedish platform growth initiatives.

+44-20-7568 3580

Valuation: Shares trade at ~19.5x 2027E EPS

Shares trade within the long term range, and at a significant discount to Nordnet. Signs

of market and investor confidence recovery in Sweden are encouraging, as too are the

new initiatives being launched in Sweden. Whilst 2026E has started well, we remain

cautious on the sustainability of improving trends in activity and growth and do not see