Japan Food Sector: Apr-June 2026 results outlook: not all bad news may be out

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Food Sector: Apr-June 2026 results outlook: not all bad news may be out

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

Japan Food Sector Equities

JapanApr-June 2026 results outlook: not all bad news

may be out Food & Beverage

Rei Ihara

Analyst

rei.ihara@ubs.com

Not all bad news may be out, but share prices are already rebounding +81-3-5208 6227

Even amid the tech-driven market, TOPIX Food has delivered share price performance Ryunosuke Watanabe

broadly in line with TOPIX YTD. Until June, Ajinomoto, which has tech-related elements, Associate Analyst

led the sector, but since then investors have been looking for stocks that have become ryunosuke.watanabe@ubs.com

inexpensive relative to historical levels, and share prices across the sector have begun to +81-3-5208 6243

rebound. However, despite the rebound in share prices, we do not expect improvement

in fundamentals any time soon. Cost increases stemming from the Middle East situation

are unlikely to become evident in the next results yet, but after them, and we do not

think that the next results will be the last of the bad news. Moreover, given cost increases

due to recent yen depreciation and the anticipated El Niño, among other factors, we

cannot be optimistic about next fiscal year at this stage. We forecast that share prices for

most stocks will react negatively, but that those supported by fundamental factors will

see only temporary share price declines, which could make them look even more

appealing.

We see a limited number stocks with March FY-ends to focus on beyond the

results

Among the stocks with March FY-ends, we see few names to focus on towards the

results, because (1) many of them, including Morinaga and Yakult Honsha, are likely to

report weaker results than expected, (2) even for stocks that are expected to beat