2Q26 TL & Brokerage Preview: Rates at Records, Earnings Yet to Peak

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 TL & Brokerage Preview: Rates at Records, Earnings Yet to Peak

USA | Transport & Logistics EquityJulyResearch14, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:2Q26 TL & Brokerage Preview: Rates at Records,

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETEarnings Yet to Peak

CHRW BUY $220.00

Truckload tightness deepened in 2Q with rejections at 17% and van spot up RXO BUY $30.00

45% YoY, above contract for the first time since 2022. While supply-led thus far, LSTR HOLD $210.00

firming demand should see tightness carry through the 2027 bid season as well.

Post-Montgomery, we view scale as a structural moat. We like both RXO and

CHRW into the print despite near-term GP compression, as the true earnings

KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

inflection still lies ahead and valuations look tame on mid-cycle earnings power.

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

Setting the Stage; Tightness Deepens Into Print, Setup Skews Attractive Into 2H26 and 2027: CHRW BUY $220.00 ($200.00)

Heading into 2Q prints, the truckload market has moved decisively into a durable tightening cycle RXO BUY $30.00 ($24.00)

we believe is still only in its early innings. Tender rejections climbed from 12-13% entering April

LSTR HOLD $210.00 ($185.00)

to a cycle-high 17.5% by mid-June, with dry van near 18%, reefer around 25% post-Roadcheck,

and flatbed running 30-40% throughout the quarter. Van spot rates ex-fuel accelerated every

month, up 25% YoY in April, 33% in May, and 45% in June, crossing above contract for the first

time since February 2022. Critically, this repricing has occurred against demand that is merely Figure 1 - Outbound Tender Rejection Index

stabilizing. With PMIs in expansion, inventories lean, Class 8 orders inflecting, and OBBBA industrial

tailwinds building, even a modest peak season recovery would meet a market with essentially