Guide Cut‘s Disappointing But Partly Baked Into Stock, Incremental Cut Unlikely

Research evidence excerpt

Guide Cut‘s Disappointing But Partly Baked Into Stock, Incremental Cut Unlikely

USA | Healthcare Services

HCA Healthcare EquityJulyResearch14, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEGuide Cut's Disappointing But Partly Baked Into

RATING BUYStock, Incremental Cut Unlikely

PRICE $390.74^

We understand the HCA move in reaction to mgmt's guide cut, though we would

argue that the stock reflected some expectation for payor mix headwinds given PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $450.00 ($525.00) | +15%

how it has traded since mgmt comments on bus tours in May. That said, we 52W HIGH-LOW $556.52 - $330.00

believe mgmt has better visibility into HIX headwinds today & has adequately FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 66.2% | 667.45

adjusted the core outlook to reflect slowing surgeries to ensure achievability of MARKET CAP $88.6B

the revised guidance range. Expect aggressive buybacks in the coming weeks. TICKER HCA ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Price: intraday Oct 28th

Prelim Q2 Results & FY26 Guidance Cut. Excl. the $400MM benefit from FL DPP, EBITDA was -HSD

% vs. cons, reflecting payor mix pressure largely tied to HIX. FY26 EBITDA guidance was cut 1.6% at

midpt, as a higher HIX h/w & core growth reduction offset an improved SDP outlook. Notably, HCA FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

increased the HIX impact +$350MM & raised its net SDP benefit by ~$550MM since Q1. With the 2025 2026 2025 2026

HIX guidance now reset, the implied qrtly cadence suggests pressure is moderating, w/ the reported REV* NA -2% -4% -1%

~$400MM Q2 impact incl. ~$75MM related to Q1, meaning a normalized Q2 h/w of ~$325MM vs EPS NA -6% -7% -5%

an implied ~$275MM per quarter in 2H26.

HIX Headwind Visibility's Better, Further Guidance Cut Unlikely. Investors had been questioning 2025 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY