Travelers: Data Points to Lower Rate in 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Travelers: Data Points to Lower Rate in 2Q26

USA | P&C Insurance/Insurtech

Travelers EquityJulyResearch14, 2026

FLASH NOTEData Points to Lower Rate in 2Q26

As the P&C cycle continues to moderate, pricing remains a key area of RATING HOLD

focus. Persistent pressure in property rates, limited evidence of casualty PRICE $341.51^

reacceleration, and a higher property mix for some carriers in 2Q point to further PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $341.00 | -0%

sequential moderation in reported pricing. Our analysis suggests TRV's RRC 52W HIGH-LOW $349.35 - $249.19

could slow by 50bps+ QoQ to 2.6% in 2Q26E, though with exposure contributing FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.5% | 670.73

an additional ~2.5%, implies RPC in the low-5% range. MARKET CAP $72.6B

TICKER TRV

We expect disclosed pricing data (TRV/WRB/HIG) to show sequential moderation in 2Q26 reflecting ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

property softness, mix, and potentially more casualty competition. In 1Q26, TRV's Domestic BI (ex

Nat'l Accts) RRC of 3.2% was down 60bps (RPC of 5.8% -40bps) QoQ with Select Accounts 4.0%

down 110bps (RPC of 8.8% -200bps) and Middle Market 4.3% down 80bps (RPC 6.6% -20bps). HIG's

BI RPC of 4.1% moderated 40bps QoQ in 1Q26 though Small Comm'l 3.8% was down 70bps, better Exhibit 5 - The prior quarter's CIAB data

than TRV's Select Accounts. WRB's 7.2% avg. rate (ex WC) was up 10bps QoQ in 1Q26, though weighted by TRV premium size has ~90%

correlation with TRV's reported RRC since

mgmt expects to be more competitive in certain lines moving forward which could further pressure 1Q16

RPC beyond broader market competition. We estimate QoQ moderation in RRC in 2Q26E

10%

CIAB's 1Q26 pricing survey showed sequential moderation across Comm'l Property (-5.5%; -480bps 8%