International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N): Negative Pre-Announce: Supply Chain Constraints, Frontier AI "Distractions" Impair Results

Research evidence excerpt

International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N): Negative Pre-Announce: Supply Chain Constraints, Frontier AI "Distractions" Impair Results

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14 Jul 2026 09:06:23 ET │ 11 pages

International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N)

Negative Pre-Announce: Supply Chain Constraints, Frontier AI

"Distractions" Impair Results

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Price (13 Jul 26 16:00) US$290.23 In a rare negative pre-announce with a stark revs miss 1% YoY

Target price US$375.00 (Street/CitiE 5%), IBM cited large deal slippage with capex reallocation to

servers/storage/memory impairing Z-mainframe performance (infra -7% Expected share price return 29.2%

vs. Street/CitiE -3%/-3%), and correspondingly cannibalizing software Expected dividend yield 2.3%

spend (5% YoY segment growth vs. Street/CitiE 10%/11%) particularly on Expected total return 31.5%

Transaction Processing. Frontier AI-influenced cyber advancements late- Market Cap US$272,783M

C1Q were also a culprit of exacerbated procurement cycles. These

businesses representing ~16%/~13% of total revs explains the optical

pain, but where upwards of 80% of aggregate profitability tied to these

divisions also risks near-term EPS/FCF erosion. With Red Hat accelerating Fatima BoolaniAC

QoQ (positive surprise), directionally we surmise Automation sub- +1-212-816-9115

segment was likely light (we tease-out MSD% vs. HSD expects), with Data fatima.boolani@citi.com

implicitly underperforming at a (surprisingly) larger relative magnitude in Mark Zhang

our attempt to decompose software's aggregate 5pt underperformance. +1-212-816-2267

Bottomline, these disappointing results stand to perpetuate "AI-Loser" mark1.zhang@citi.com

fears, compounded by recent DIY/insourcing/displacement

Joel Omino

headlines (Forbes,7/12) keeping shares in penalty box.

+1-212-519-9383