Mercedes-Benz Group: Most Defensive German OEM

Research evidence excerpt

Mercedes-Benz Group: Most Defensive German OEM

EUROPE | Autos & Auto Parts

Mercedes-Benz Group EquityJulyResearch14, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEMost Defensive German OEM

No surprise in an overall quiet open preclose call, where Group Treasurer RATING BUY

Christina Schenk mainly confirmed Car margin within the guided range of 3-5%, PRICE €44.29^

Vans trading at the upper end of 8-10% and Finco delivering above guidance. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €52.00 | +17%

We tweak estimates up, mostly in Vans and continue to see MBG as more 52W HIGH-LOW €62.34 - €42.63

advanced than peers in defending its competitive position even as significant FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 80.5% | 123.09

work remains ahead. MARKET CAP €42.6B | $48.5B

TICKER MBG GR

Estimates only tweaked - For Q2 we lower Car revenue slightly to €22.8bn, -6% y/y but raise Car ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

adj EBIT slightly to €780m, 3.4% margin keeping China contribution ~€60m (vs €111m last year).

Limited new information on moving parts and continuing debate on China risks triggering more

dealer support in H2 assuming none was booked in Q2, while compliance cost should se some FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

relief in the US but also Europe given higher EV penetration. More significant increase from Vans 2026 2027 2026 2027

with adj EBIT upped 14% to €422m and 9.6% margin and a FY outlook looking a bit brighter on REV NM NM -3% -4%

new models. Altogether commentary remained constructive around organic FCF ~€4bn and we EPS +2% -1% -9% -14%

continue to assume €700-800m in Q2. We raise FY adj EBIT ~2% keeping Car margin at 3.7% and

adding 60bps to Vans at 9.5%. No update on the sale of Daimler Truck shares with Christina only 2026 (€) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY