JP Shipping: Trump’s Hormuz Fee a Potential Tailwind for Container ships

Research evidence excerpt

JP Shipping: Trump’s Hormuz Fee a Potential Tailwind for Container ships

d rerouting could . Liner trade Air Cargo Logistics Drybulk Car carrier Energy

Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates

further tighten vessel supply. With charter rates near post-Covid highs and freight rates rising,

the proposal could support freight markets and ONE earnings, though legal and political Exhibit 2 - MOL's RP (Recurring Profit)

challenges may limit implementation.

Shareholder Returns: K-Line Most Aggressive Following Recent Buyback. NYK offers a 40%

payout ratio, planned FY3/27 DPS of ¥200, and flexibility for additional returns. MOL maintains

its progressive dividend policy and 40% TSR framework, guiding FY3/27 DPS of ¥205. However,

the June AGM provided limited evidence of accelerated asset sales or more aggressive capital

returns. K-Line offers ¥120 DPS and a recently announced buyback of up to ¥130bn (6.96% of

shares outstanding), further boosting returns under its medium-term plan. The buyback period

runs from June 1 to September 30, 2026. At ONE, the 40% payout ratio and substantial cash .Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates

position continue to support distributions.

Exhibit 3 - K-Line's RP (Recurring Profit)

Valuation: Maintain Hold on NYK and K-Line; MOL Remains Buy Despite Lower PT. For (JPY bn)

NYK, we apply 0.8x PBR to our FY3/28 BVPS estimate of ¥7,720, supported by our FY3/27 RP 400

forecast of ¥223.9bn (vs guidance of ¥185bn). For K-Line, we apply 0.9x PBR to our FY3/28 300

BVPS estimate of ¥3,117. Our RP estimate for FY3/27 is ¥130.3bn (vs guidance of ¥100bn). For 88

MOL, we forecast FY3/27 RP of ¥168.4bn (vs guidance of ¥145bn) and retain Buy, but reduce 200

our target price to ¥8,600 from ¥10,200 by applying 0.9x PBR to our FY3/28 BVPS estimate 100 206 54