Retail REITs: Same Multiple, Structurally Better Business

Research evidence excerpt

Retail REITs: Same Multiple, Structurally Better Business

USA | REITs EquityJulyResearch14, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Retail REITs: Same Multiple, Structurally Better

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETBusiness

SPG BUY $282.00

We are constructive on Retail REITs, anchored by a healthier tenant base, a REG BUY $103.00

resilient K-shaped consumer, and the tightest supply backdrop in decades, BRX BUY $42.00

driving improving earnings durability. Multiples sit near 10Y averages, but those AKR BUY $25.00

averages were set amid e-commerce anxiety, COVID, and weaker tenants. We IVT BUY $41.00

believe that paying a historical multiple for a structurally better business is, on

a quality-adjusted basis, a discount. Top picks: BRX, AKR, SPG.

Coverage of Retail REITs is assumed by Jonathan Petersen KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

Historical Avg. Multiple, Structurally Better Business: Shopping Center REITs trade roughly in

line with their 10Y avg. P/AFFO multiples, but those averages were set during a period defined SPG BUY $282.00 ($229.00)

by e-commerce anxiety, COVID disruption, and weaker tenant rosters. The business today is REG BUY $103.00 ($88.00)

fundamentally improved: grocery anchor penetration is higher, necessity-based ABR has increased, BRX BUY $42.00 ($33.00)

Sunbelt exposure has grown, and the supply backdrop is the tightest in decades. New retail

AKR BUY $25.00 ($23.00)

deliveries have collapsed from ~0.7% of inventory annually (2010-2017) to just ~0.1% (2020-2025),

with only ~0.3% of inventory currently under construction. We believe current multiples do not fully IVT BUY $41.00 ($36.00)

reflect the improved earnings quality and durability of the underlying cash flows.