F3/27 1Q Results Preview: Expect Steady Progress but Headwinds Remain

Research evidence excerpt

F3/27 1Q Results Preview: Expect Steady Progress but Headwinds Remain

IdeaPreviewMto earnings

Focus KPI Focus KPI Surprise Likely impact to consensus EPS*

Denso 6902.T

OPM In-line Largely unchanged

• We expect F3/27 1Q OP of ¥100bn. IFIS consensus is ~¥103bn. We think full-year OP guidance is likely to be

maintained at ¥500bn (our forecast: ¥525bn; IFIS: slightly above ¥540bn).

• Higher raw material (copper, etc.) and China weak volumes are negatives, but likely to be offset by yen

depreciation and cost reductions. Excluding quality-related expenses, solid earnings progress.

• The ¥313.6bn tender offer for treasury shares was completed by June. Barring large-scale M&A, such as in

semis, we think the possibility of market purchases of treasury shares may also be considered.

Aisin 7259.T

Powertrain unit volumes Likely downside surprise Largely unchanged

• We expect F3/27 1Q OP of ¥40bn. IFIS consensus is ~¥50.0bn. Full-year OP guidance of ¥235bn (our

forecast: ¥240bn; IFIS: ~¥247bn) will likely be maintained.

• Watching higher aluminium prices, weaker AT shipments to local OEMs in China, and eAxle ramp-up costs (for

BMW in Europe and China). Yen depreciation and cost reductions are positives.

• Powertrain volumes increasing, supported by continued AT/CVT demand and expanding HEV/PHEV orders.

Over the medium term, we highlight next-generation eAxle development and software enhancement.

Toyota Boshoku 3116.T

Seat unit volumes Likely downside surprise Modest revision lower

• We expect F3/27 1Q OP of ¥16.5bn. IFIS consensus is ¥16–16.5bn. We think full-year OP guidance for ¥80bn

(our forecast: ¥82bn; IFIS: slightly above ¥78.5bn) will likely be maintained.

• In Japan, we expect mix improvement due to higher exposure to minivans, but overseas performance may be