Persistent Supply Shortage as RAD Retention Builds Out: Regis Aged Care

Research evidence excerpt

Persistent Supply Shortage as RAD Retention Builds Out: Regis Aged Care

Australia | Health Care Facilities

Regis Aged Care EquityJulyResearch14, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEPersistent Supply Shortage as RAD Retention

RATING BUYBuilds Out

PRICE AUD6.00^

With occupancy at record highs we reiterate our Buy thesis given the

AUD8.00 (AUD9.00) |

positive demand fundamentals. At the same time, we lag RAD retention PRICE TARGET | % TO PT +33%

revenues consistent with the staggered nature of admissions and await 52W HIGH-LOW AUD9.40 - AUD5.62

funding reform needed to bolster sector-wide sustainability. PT A$8.00 FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 60.1% | 3.12

(from A$9.00), retain Buy. MARKET CAP AUD1.8B | $1.3B

TICKER REG AU

Persistent supply-demand imbalance worsening. Demand: 2026-27 is the estimated peak for ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

baby boomers turning 80 years old with an estimated ~1.3m Australians currently aged 80 noted.

years+. The median age at admission into residential aged care is 85 years. The ABS forecast

there will be more than 1m Australians aged 85 years+ by 2042. Supply: In June 2025, there

FY (Jun) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

were only ~225,000 residential aged care beds, with net new beds having only increased by

~4,500 (CAGR of 2.0%) over the past 3 years. Viability: StewartBrown's December 2025 survey 2026 2027 2026 2027

(covering 46% of all homes) sees 35% of homes generating an EBITDA of only ~A$4,600 REV <-1% -2% NA NA

per bed per annum and 61% of homes operating at a loss. Significant undersupply of beds EPS <-1% -6% -4% -6%

approaching critical levels—however—supply will only follow improved economics.

2026 (AUD) 1HalfA 2Half FY

Underlying EBITDA decreases 0.6% in FY26E and 3.9% in FY27E.