Residential REITs: The Recovery Is Slowly Taking Shape

Research evidence excerpt

Residential REITs: The Recovery Is Slowly Taking Shape

USA | REITs EquityJulyResearch14, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Residential REITs: The Recovery Is Slowly

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETTaking Shape

ESS BUY $336.00

Residential fundamentals remain stable but increasingly bifurcated, as slower UDR BUY $46.00

immigration and population growth create demand headwinds while AI hiring, MAA HOLD $141.00

RTO, and coastal migration support select markets. We upgrade UDR and ESS CPT HOLD $113.00

to Buy, as fundamentals are improving and expectations remain reasonable, EQR HOLD $73.00

while downgrading MAA and CPT to Hold given a less compelling risk/reward,

with the stocks more exposed to the risk of a delayed or choppier Sunbelt

recovery.

KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

Transferring lead coverage to Ahmed Mehri. TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

ESS BUY $336.00 ($275.00)

Multifamily Fundamentals Stable Broadly but Bifurcated: National apartment demand appears

stable rather than deteriorating, though growth faces headwinds from slower household formation UDR BUY $46.00 ($37.00)

and reduced immigration-driven absorption, particularly in larger coastal and Sunbelt markets. MAA HOLD $141.00 ($157.00)

Net international migration is expected to fall from a 2024 peak of 2.7M to ~321K in 2026, CPT HOLD $113.00 ($121.00)

while international student demand is softening, with new enrollment down -17% Y/Y in Fall

EQR HOLD $73.00 ($64.00)

2025. By market, performance is increasingly bifurcated: Sunbelt migration has moderated while

coastal outflows have eased. Meanwhile, AI-driven hiring is supporting the Bay Area and parts of

Seattle, while the Northeast continues to benefit from RTO and resilient employment. While supply

headwinds are fading, pricing power may take longer to return.