P&C Insurance Incorporating Higher Catastrophes Losses for Intact

Research evidence excerpt

P&C Insurance Incorporating Higher Catastrophes Losses for Intact

Global Research

9 July 2026ab

P&C Insurance Equities

North AmericaIncorporating Higher Catastrophes Losses for

Intact Insurance

Brian Meredith

Analyst

brian.meredith@ubs.com

IFC pre-announced catastrophe losses for 2Q26 +1-212-713 2492

The Canadian IFC pre-announced higher than expected catastrophe losses for 2Q26 Leandro Leite

(more here) at C$416m, 5% higher than our previous estimate of C$397m, primarily Associate Analyst

from Personal Property in Canada and UK&I. In Canada, the losses were driven by leandro.leite@ubs.com

weather events, including torrential storms causing flooding, water and wind damage +1-212-882 5559

across several regions, while in the UK&I, the impact came from commercial fires. We Justin Tucker

incorporate the losses into our numbers and also assess the potential read through for Associate Analyst

DFY. justin.tucker@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2325

IFC: 2Q26 new EPS at C$3.15 (from C$4.05 previously)

IFC pre-announced its 2Q26 catastrophe losses of C$416m, including C$252m in

Personal Property Canada, C$121m in UK&I, C$37m in Commercial Lines Canada and

C$6m in Personal Auto Canada (pre-tax and net of reinsurance). The pre-announced

numbers are higher than 2Q's 10-year average of ~C$160m. IFC also announced that

the impact of large losses within the underlying current year loss ratio was above

expectations and reached 3pts overall, including 3pts in Canada Personal Property, 3pts

in Canada Commercial Lines and 7pts in UK&I. Therefore, we are raising our

consolidated combined ratio by ~3pts to 92.0% (+90bps y/y). As a result, we are

reducing our 2Q26 EPS estimate to C$3.15 (from C$4.05 previously, -22%) and

FY2026 to C$16.72 (from C$17.68, -5%). We continue to view M&A as a potential