N.A. Chems & Pkg Consumer Monthly Check-up

Research evidence excerpt

N.A. Chems & Pkg Consumer Monthly Check-up

(BALL, CCK, james-p.cannon@ubs.com

AMBP), with both U.S. and European demand trends worsening sequentially +1-212-713 4057

during the quarter. Glass markets also remain challenged, and softer volume Nicole Grueneberg

trends could create additional pressure for OI amid already elevated energy costs. Associate Analyst

Packaged food exposure (GPK, SON, IFF, INGR) continues to face a difficult nicole.grueneberg@ubs.com

demand environment, with the deterioration in food and beverage consumption +1-212-713-2469

trends presenting incremental risk to volume. On the HPC side, demand has

remained relatively resilient versus other consumer categories, making the latest

data more neutral for ASH, although growth trends have moderated alongside

broader consumer spending weakness.

Macro: conditions deteriorating

Macro data in 2Q26 points to a continued weakening in consumer demand. In the U.S.,

the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index improved to 49.5 in June from

44.8 in May (+10.5% M/M), but remains at historically depressed levels and down

sharply versus 60.7 a year ago (-18.5% Y/Y), indicating consumer confidence is still

weak despite a modest near-term recovery. Gas prices have started to moderate from

peak levels, but uncertainty around the conflict remains. Discretionary spending remains

constrained, and inflation was high in both the U.S and E.U in the quarter. Both regions

also saw softening consumer sentiment. Looking ahead, the demand outlook remains

cautious. While sentiment improved sequentially in June, consumer confidence remains

historically weak, inflation continues to pressure household budgets, and customers

remain disciplined on inventories. As a result, we expect consumer-related packaging