US Spirits/Beer: On-premise channel focus: Q2TD shows weaker trends across beer and spirits; RTDs (New) slightly rebound

Research evidence excerpt

US Spirits/Beer: On-premise channel focus: Q2TD shows weaker trends across beer and spirits; RTDs (New) slightly rebound

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

US Spirits/Beer Equities

GlobalOn-premise channel focus: Q2TD shows weaker

trends across beer and spirits; RTDs (New) Beverage

slightly rebound SanjeetAnalystAujla

sanjeet.aujla@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 4529

US on-premise channel trends Peter Grom

Analyst

In this report, we highlight the latest US Spirits and Beer on-premise channel data peter.grom@ubs.com

covering the 4wks to 16th of May as tracked by NielsenIQ (previously CGA), which lags +1-212-713 3482

the off-premise channel data by around 1 month. We estimate the data covers c78% of

Arnaud Autier

the US on-premise channel (excludes stadiums and resorts), which in turn makes up

Associate Analyst

c20% of the US Spirits industry volumes, c15% of the US Beer industry and c10% of the arnaud.autier@ubs.com

RTD industry. Given the on-premise channel is more discretionary, we think it provides +44-20-7901 6849

important insights into the broader health of the US consumer.

Q2TD trends worsen for spirits and beer but RTDs rebound; Campari volumes

turned negative; ABI share trend deteriorates while Diageo Beer accelerates

We think it is more insightful to focus on the volume trends, as we think the on-trade

channel pricing is less captured by the suppliers, and more by the retailers. The latest

US NielsenIQ on-premise channel data covering the 4-week period to 16th May shows

US Spirits vols -9.3% deteriorating vs prev 4W -7% and Q2TD -8.3% worsening vs Q1

-2.4%. Price/mix at +4.5% L4W softening vs prev4W +6.9% and Q2TD +5.4% vs

Q1 +6.5%. Thus sales -5.2% deteriorated significantly vs prev 4W -0.6% and Q2TD -

3.3% turning negative vs Q1 +3.9%.