Fast Take Orkla

Research evidence excerpt

Fast Take Orkla

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -15.6%

Forecast dividend yield 3.9%

Forecast stock return -11.7%

Market return assumption 9.6%

Forecast excess return -21.4%

Company Description

Orkla is a leading supplier of local branded consumer goods with strong market positions

across the Nordics and Baltics. Its largest market, Norway, accounts for 20% of sales. In total,

Orkla products are sold in more than 100 countries, with its three largest product categories

being snacks, confectionery and hygiene. As well as a branded consumer goods business,

Orkla also holds financial investments such as real estate.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Key downside risks: i) need for more re-investments can hinder margin ambitions. FMCG

sector is a competitive industry with a number of big, international companies competing for

market shares worldwide. Investment in product innovation and marketing represents a

substantial part of its costs, and can vary from quarter to quarter.; ii) consumer downtrading

leading to further market share gains by Private Label in Western Europe. The sector is also

exposed to competition from private label product manufacturers and industry consolidation

among its major clients, the mass-market retailers. All these considerations can impact net

revenue growth and profitability; iii) risk of negative pricing in Western Europe; iv) foreign

exchange volatility can affect sales and profit growth momentum.

Upside risks: i) more pronounced normalisation in the prices of raw material could lead to

greater margin upside; ii) growth in Orkla India could turn out to be stronger if the company

succeeds in pushing its distribution expansion; iii) mix improvement could be more significant