Global Rates Strategy: SSA Supply: Diversification Accelerates in H1 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Global Rates Strategy: SSA Supply: Diversification Accelerates in H1 2026

Despite the EU remaining the largest issuer in the SSA universe—and the largest

supranational borrower—with record issuance of around EUR180bn expected for 2026

(of which EUR99.5bn issued in H126), the overall share of supranational supply has

declined this year. At 43% of total issuance year-to-date, the supranational share is the

lowest seen in the past five years (Figure 3SAsuplybysub-sector(%)).By contrast, both agencies and local

authorities have increased their contribution to overall SSA supply. Agencies

have already issued around EUR 212bn equivalent year-to-date, representing

approximately 39% of total issuance, up from 34% in 2025. Local authorities have also

continued to gain market share, accounting for 18% of total SSA issuance in 2026 YTD,

compared with 15% in 2015. These trends underscore the increasing importance of

agencies and local authority borrowers within the broader SSA market.

Figure 3: SSA supply by sub-sector (%)

ub- sec tor (% )

SSA su ppl y b y s

Source: IGM Bondradar, Bloomberg, UBS

A meaningful increase in local authorities and agencies issuance is evident in H1

2026 compared with H1 2025, both on a gross and net basis. Overall, agencies

recorded net supply of approximately EUR 72bn equivalent in H1 2026, around EUR

18bn higher than in H1 2025. The increase was even more pronounced among local

authorities, whose net supply rose to approximately EUR 57bn in H1 2026 from EUR

33bn in H1 2025. In contrast, supranational issuers generated lower net supply in the

first half of 2026 than in the corresponding period of last year.

Figure 4: Gross and net supply of Supras, Agencies and Local Authorities in H126

vs. H125

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