ASEAN Internet: Q226 Preview: Solid Fundamentals amidst FX and policy headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN Internet: Q226 Preview: Solid Fundamentals amidst FX and policy headwinds

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

ASEAN Internet Equities

Asia EmergingQ226 Preview: Solid Fundamentals amidst FX

and policy headwinds Internet Services

Navin Killa

Analyst

navin.killa@ubs.com

Q226 Preview: Strong organic growth, some FX headwinds +852-2971 7594

We expect Sea and Grab to report strong results in Q226 despite a challenging macro as Calvin Chur

both companies benefit from share gains, continued digitisation and generally stable Analyst

competition. We estimate Sea's e-commerce GMV to grow 28% YoY (above the 25% calvin.chur@ubs.com

guidance) with margins stable QoQ, and we see room for the company to revise its e- +65-6495 3992

comm EBITDA guidance positively. Similarly, Grab's ccy growth in both segments should

be strong at around 20s, but 2-3ppt of FX headwinds will optically imply a slowdown in

Q2 vs Q1. The consolidation of SuperBank, Stash and Foodpanda Taiwan could

materially alter the P&L of Grab in coming quarters and we offer our initial thoughts on

the potential impact. We remain positive on the sector with our pecking order: 1) Grab,

2) Sea and 3) GoTo.

Sea: Could e-commerce EBITDA guidance be raised?

UBS Evidence Lab receipts data shows Shopee GMV growth remains robust and we

estimate 28% YoY growth in Q2 with EBITDA margins stable QoQ at c60bps. Our

discounting and take rate trackers also show stable competition in ASEAN with both

Shopee and TikTok Shop increasing take rates in May'26 following earlier increases in

Q126. Taiwan MAU and competition trends are also stable, although MELI's MAU

performance continues to outshine Shopee in Brazil. We see some scope for

management to increase e-commerce EBITDA guidance for 2026. On the other