Indonesian Metals Sector: Nickel: should we be bullish on Class-2 metal?

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesian Metals Sector: Nickel: should we be bullish on Class-2 metal?

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

Indonesian Metals Sector Equities

IndonesiaNickel: should we be bullish on Class-2 metal?

Mining & Metals

Igor Putra

YTD exports subdued, but positive signs for Class-2 metal fundamentals Analyst

1) UBS's live nickel port tracker up to 7 July 2026 shows total nickel exports remained igor.putra@ubs.com

weak with YTD refined nickel down 5% YoY and the YoY declining trend persisting in +62-21-2554 7033

June and July. Only nickel matte exports grew. This reaffirms our positive view on nickel Ivan Reynaldo Sutheja

fundamentals as supply remains tight. With nickel prices hovering at a low US$16k/tNi, Analyst

possibly pricing in a potential excessive H226 mining quota (RKAB) boost and in line with ivan-reynaldo.sutheja@ubs.com

our forecast nickel price floor (here, here), we highlight near-term support for nickel +62-21-2554 7037

prices as we expect RKAB to stay tight (<300m wmt in 2026E). 2) We flag emerging Daniel Major

bullish signals for non-EV battery grade (Class-2) metals such as NPI and FeNi due to Analyst

tighter supply and rising demand. While a NPI/FeNi price rise may not occur immediately, daniel.major@ubs.com

relying on China's Class-2 metal restocking start, we believe there is a cap to destocking +44-20-7568 3472

as inventory eventually becomes low. Thus Class-2 metal restocking should spur Class-2 Dim Ariyasinghe

metal prices. Analyst

dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com

Shrinking Indonesian NPI/FeNi supply +61-3-9242 6385

Our analysis indicates Class-2 metal supply is tightening. YTD NPI/FeNi exports are down Timothy Handerson

the most (-76ktNi YoY) vs. other nickel types with June 2026 recording the lowest Analyst

monthly exports since May 2024.