India Metals and Mining: Q1FY27E: Improved realizations to drive earnings higher

Research evidence excerpt

India Metals and Mining: Q1FY27E: Improved realizations to drive earnings higher

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

India Metals and Mining Equities

IndiaQ1FY27E: Improved realizations to drive

earnings higher Mining & Metals

Rwibhu Aon

Analyst

rwibhu.aon@ubs.com

Aluminium: Strong earnings in Q1FY27; outlook remains supportive +91-22-6155 6078

LME aluminium prices improved 46%/12% YoY/QoQ to an elevated US$3,570/t, while Yash Bohra

alumina prices declined 14% YoY (flat QoQ) to US$307/t in Q1FY27. For Hindalco, we Associate Analyst

expect: 1) upstream EBITDA to improve 45%/8% YoY/QoQ to Rs59bn; 2) Novelis yash.bohra@ubs.com

EBITDA to improve 11% YoY (flat QoQ), although shipments have yet to recover fully +91-22-6155 6235

after the Oswego facility fires; and 3) consolidated EBITDA to improve 34%/6% YoY/

QoQ to Rs108bn. For NALCO, we expect: 1) alumina/aluminium sales to improve 11%/

decline 1% YoY; 2) alumina EBITDA to decline 18%/1% YoY/QoQ (with softer

realizations) to Rs4.6bn; 3) aluminium EBITDA to improve 122%/10% YoY/QoQ to

Rs22.0bn; and 3) consolidated EBITDA to improve 74%/10% YoY/QoQ to Rs25.9bn

(EBITDA margin of 50%). Alumina prices have settled close to the cost curve, and we

expect them to stay range-bound due to increasing supply. Aluminium will be supported

in the near term by a 2026 deficit but could rebalance as Middle East/Indonesian supply

returns/ramps up.

Steel: Realizations improved in H1CY26; we see limited upside from here

India HRC prices improved by Rs4,900/t QoQ in Q1FY27 (+Rs6,600/t QoQ in Q4FY26),

while India rebar prices were flat QoQ in Q1FY27 (+Rs10,000/t QoQ in Q4FY26). China

HRC/rebar prices (in USD terms) improved 9%/7% QoQ in Q1FY27, after improving

1%/3% QoQ in Q4FY26. Notably, India domestic HRC prices were at a discount of ~6%