Transport Takes: What We Learned -- Sentiment & Key Debates, EXPD under the Radar? + JBHT Incremental Margins

Research evidence excerpt

Transport Takes: What We Learned -- Sentiment & Key Debates, EXPD under the Radar? + JBHT Incremental Margins

Global Research

11 July 2026ab

Transport Takes Equities

North AmericaWhat We Learned -- Sentiment & Key Debates,

EXPD under the Radar? + JBHT Incremental Transportation Services

Margins Thomas WadewitzAnalyst

thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com

+1-212-713 6116

Preview dinner / client calls ==> Mixed on LTL; Positive on Rails, Michael Triano

AnalystJBHT & CSX most Loved

michael.triano@ubs.com

On Tuesday we hosted our NY earnings preview dinner and have spoken with a variety +1-212-713 3822

of clients through the week. Most interesting in our view is the LTL group where there is

Michael DiMattia

a mix of positives (improving price, tightening capacity) and headwinds (less fuel benefit

Analyst

in 3Q vs 2Q). We note a lack of conviction from investors in either direction on michael.dimattia@ubs.com

LTL names. We believe there is opportunity to pick an LTL name and own it into the print +1-617-748 5628

--- XPO seems the cleanest story and likely the most visible positive 2H outlook. Our

conversations on railroads have been broadly positive with CSX most in favor and

UNP the next preferred despite on-going merger uncertainty. For truckload related

names, there is high conviction of a continuation in the strong pricing cycle but less

conviction on owning names into 2Q prints against a backdrop where expectations are

elevated and pressure from a tight driver market is beginning to have an impact.

What is the right Incremental margin for JBHT in 2027? Historically ~30% on

Price / Mix

In the body of this note we provide a table which shows our analysis of JBHT's

incremental margin performance in their intermodal business across several historical

cycles.