APAC Sustainability: El Niño: Probability of "Very Strong" Event Up

Research evidence excerpt

APAC Sustainability: El Niño: Probability of "Very Strong" Event Up

Analyst

matheus.enfeldt@ubs.com

ECMWF forecast of a key El Niño indicator has shifted higher for Aug-Nov +55-11-2767 6975

The ECMWF's forecasts as of July 1st show the Relative NINO3.4 anomaly has shifted Arend Kapteyn

to a higher level, especially for Aug-Nov. The many model forecasts shown in Figure 3JUNE Economist

-RelativeNinoanomaly as of June had a wide range for this period, but the range of model forecasts as of July arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

(Figure 4 JULY-RelativeNinoanomaly) has narrowed. The maximum forecast (the red line at the top of the plume)

that reaches an anomaly of c. 3.8°C in Nov has not gone up further, but the minimum Eric Lin

forecast (c. 2.1°C in Nov) has gone up significantly to c. 2.5°C in Nov. It is worth noting Director of APAC Research

that both of these minimum forecasts would class El Niño as "Very Strong." The eric-p.lin@ubs.com

+852-2971 6819

historical high for this same indicator was c. 3.1°C (1983). The three times this indicator

exceeded 2.5°C since 1980 are1982/1983, 1997/98, and 2015/16. Shunta Omura

shunta.omura@ubs.comUBS Views

+81-3-5208 6244

Report Author

Rei Ihara

ASEAN Macro: Philippines and Indonesia are relatively exposed to El Analyst 7/6 Lim

Niño. Potentially negative for water intensive rice and sugar. rei.ihara@ubs.com

+81-3-5208 6227

7/3 Video: How is El Niño reshaping Asia's macro outlook? Lin

Lydia Brunton

Expected APAC Country and Japan Company Impacts: Japanese food/ Analyst

6/23 agrichem supply chains could be negatively impacted while AC and Miyata lydia.brunton@ubs.com

skincare sales could increase +61-2-9324 2172

El Niño in LatAm - From Climate Risk to Cross-Sector Positioning: