HLMN Pre-Announcement: Higher Revs, Higher Costs, In-Line EBITDA

Research evidence excerpt

HLMN Pre-Announcement: Higher Revs, Higher Costs, In-Line EBITDA

USA | Distributors

Hillman EquityJulyResearch13, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEHLMN Pre-Announcement: Higher Revs, Higher

RATING BUYCosts, In-Line EBITDA

PRICE $7.73^

HLMN pre-announced the 2Q26 results with adj. EBITDA ($76-78m) expected

to come in line with cons. of $77m as higher sales offset lower margin. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $11.00 | +42%

Mgmt. reiterated the guidance, and we await earnings to get more details on 52W HIGH-LOW $10.85 - $6.96

the progress of sequential GM improvement from working down high-cost FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 97.6% | 13.96

inventory. We update our model to reflect the higher revenues and incorporate MARKET CAP $1.5B

lower margins for the 2Q period. TICKER HLMN ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Preliminary Release. HLMN pre-announcement this morning came in ~in line with expectations,

as higher sales offset weaker margin performance. Adj. EBITDA is expected to be in the range

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

of $76-78m (cons. $77m), while sales are expected to be between $440-444m (cons. $433m).

2026 2027 2026 2027

Preliminary results suggest an Adj. EBITDA margin of 17.3-17.6% vs. the consensus of 17.9%. We

revise our 2Q estimates to better reflect this higher revenue, higher cost scenario which results in REV NA NA NA NA

an EPS of ~$0.18 versus Consensus of $0.17. EPS NA NA +3% +3%

Reiterated Guidance. Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance provided back in 1Q26, with 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

sales expected to be $1.63-1.73bn (cons. $1.66bn) while adj. EBITDA is expected to be $275-285m EPS 0.07 0.18 0.20 0.16 0.60

(cons. $278m). FCF is also still expected to be in the range of $100-120m. There is no change to PREV 0.20 0.14