Trimming Estimates But FY30 Targets Remain Achievable

Research evidence excerpt

Trimming Estimates But FY30 Targets Remain Achievable

USA | Diversified Services

BrightView EquityJulyResearch13, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGETrimming Estimates But FY30 Targets Remain

RATING BUYAchievable

PRICE $14.30^

We're reducing our F3Q26 and FY27 estimates driven by our view that fuel will

likely be a headwind in the qtr. and that the amount of revenue generated by PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $20.00 | +40%

Snow in FY26 will not recur. That said, we believe the company is managing 52W HIGH-LOW $16.53 - $11.06

what's in their control well and think they're well positioned to achieve their FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 46.5% | 10.61

FY30 targetss driven by improved employee and customer retention, pricing, MARKET CAP $2.1B

increased sales of ancillary services, and fleet investments. Reit. Buy. TICKER BV ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Updating Estimates. We're updating our estimate by lowering our EBITDA estimates for both

F3Q26 and FY27 driven largely by fuel and normalized Snow revenue contribution. Specifically, we

FY (Sep) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

think F3Q26 EBITDA will now run $114mm (previously ~$118mm) and believe FY26 EBITDA will

2026 2027 2026 2027

likely run near the low end of guide at $366mm (guide $364-377mm). Similarly, on FY27, we think

EBITDA will shake out at $372mm and margin expansion will likely be more muted than the street is REV NA NM NM NM

modeling as we assume (1) Snow revenue normalizes to its LT of $190-220mm and (2) incremental EPS -6% -24% NA NA

margins run 20% for Maintenance and 17% for Development vs ~97%+ cons is currently modeling.

That said, our FY28 estimates contemplate LDD% EBITDA growth off of MSD-HSD% revenue growth 2026 ($) Q1A Q2A Q3 Q4 FY

driven by execution on their One BrightView Strategies.