Monthly Channel Check Takeaways #38: When Discounts Stop Working

Research evidence excerpt

Monthly Channel Check Takeaways #38: When Discounts Stop Working

Autos & Auto Parts

Equity Research

July 13, 2026

XPeng - MONA L03 looks set to be the next hit product. Pre-sales launched on Jul 6 generated

200+ orders per store on average, with some Shanghai locations exceeding 400. The RMB135k

starting-price L03 has seen strong demand for the 515km version, which accounts for 60% of

orders. Mr. Liu expects a steady-state run rate of c.15k units per month domestically, plus another

c.5k from exports. While L03 is likely to cannibalize part of M03 demand, he still expects M03 to

sustain c.8k monthly sales, taking combined volume above 20k units. Looking ahead, MONA L05

(Sep launch) and G9L (Aug launch) should further broaden XPeng's product coverage across the

RMB150-300k segment.

GWM – Tank 300 Hi4-T the standout. Mr. Liu believes Tank 300 Hi4-T has come in well ahead

of expectations, with pre-orders tracking at c.2k units per day. The RMB270k variant accounts

for roughly 70% of orders and offers a compelling combination of ADAS, premium cabin features

and off-road capability. He expects steady-state monthly sales of 12-15k units, posing meaningful

competitive pressure on urban SUVs in the same price band. By contrast, WEY's premiumization

remains challenging. While product quality is solid, the brand has yet to establish a strong consumer

franchise and lacks a clear flagship product. Mr. Liu expects VX8/VX9 to generate combined

monthly sales of around 5k unit

Geely – slower new model rollout remains the key concern. Galaxy orders fell 5-10% MoM in June

and were broadly flat YoY, while Zeekr continued to outperform, with 1H orders up 18% YoY and the

refreshed 007 delivering c.7k units in June. Lynk & Co's upcoming 08 EV should further strengthen

its sedan lineup.