MENA Banks: Thoughts into Q2’26 earnings; FAB preferred

Research evidence excerpt

MENA Banks: Thoughts into Q2’26 earnings; FAB preferred

MENA | Banks EquityJulyResearch13, 2026

MENA Banks: Thoughts into Q2'26 earnings; FAB

preferred

MENA banks in our coverage will commence Q2'26 reporting next week.

Market's focus in Saudi will be on 2H'26E credit growth outlook and whether fee

income pressures, emerging from both regulation and competition, bottomed

in 1H'26. In UAE, focus is likely to be on 2H'26E NIM outlook amid emerging

liquidity tightness and mgmt. thoughts on asset quality. JEF Q2'26E net income

deviates most vs. VA consensus in Riyad (-4%) and ADIB (+4%).

Key thoughts / questions for mgmts below

UAE: Banks are likely to indicate healthy credit opportunity in the coming quarters, as an upshot of

the regional conflict, led by investment initiatives from the govt / public sector agencies (curr. 22% of

system loans; grew 10%ytd, 23%yoy Apr-26). While volumes will be NII supportive, we think spreads

on this borrowing could be tight amid competitive pricing alongside rising liquidity premium. Expect

UAE banks to highlight resilient asset quality and state that not many borrowers have seeked relief

(as offered by the UAE Cen Bk) although street should focus on the tone / guidance for coming

qtrs (which could show more pressure) and IFRS9 MEV assumptions as input / import costs for

corps have risen amid Hormuz closure, oil -38% in Q2 and real estate prices trending lower (see

data pack). Expect mgmts to offer reassurance on their Saudi credit exposure amid undertone of

tensions between UAE and Saudi Arabia but key to hear will be the extent to which international

book can be a future growth driver as it has in 23-25A.

Saudi Arabia: Slowing loan growth (7%yoy May-26 vs. 16%yoy May-25) is on top of investor minds;