Steady as She Grows: Assets, Backlog, and RNG JV Anchor the Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Steady as She Grows: Assets, Backlog, and RNG JV Anchor the Outlook

USA | Clean Energy

Ameresco EquityJulyResearch13, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGESteady as She Grows: Assets, Backlog, and RNG

RATING BUYJV Anchor the Outlook

PRICE $24.94^

We expect an inline 2Q as management continues to execute on asset

deployment. While we do not anticipate a "beat" quarter, possible positive PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $32.00 ($35.00) | +28%

surprises could stem from accelerated backlog conversions or incremental 52W HIGH-LOW $44.93 - $15.52

margin expansion. JV with HASI adds $400mn to the balance sheet and FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 60.4% | 14.63

supports future RNG scale. Guidance re-affirmation and absence of negatives MARKET CAP $1.3B

should support shares. Transfer of coverage to Julien Dumoulin-Smith. TICKER AMRC ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Valuation Pull-Back — Why? AMRC’s EV/EBITDA has contracted ~2 turns since the start of the

year to 10.4x (FY2), largely reflecting a broad rotation away from renewables rather than concerns

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

around the underlying business. Even so, the magnitude of pullback is surprising. AMRC's ~800MW

2026 2027 2026 2027

hard-asset portfolio and specialized EPC business, both increasingly in demand amid the US power

REV* NA NA -1% -3%

buildout, should insulate shares from sector volatility, not expose it.

EBITDA NA NA -3% -1%

Valuation Disconnect: What Would Give Investors Confidence? With Street FY26 estimates

increasingly pointing to an in-line year at best, we understand why investors may not find shares 2026 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

compelling near-term. However, AMRC's current valuation, trading at a ~5-turn discount to JEFe EBITDA 40.5 61.4 76.4 81.5 259.8