Estun (002747.SZ): Fundamentals Improve But Share Price Seems Overshooting; Maintain Sell

Research evidence excerpt

Estun (002747.SZ): Fundamentals Improve But Share Price Seems Overshooting; Maintain Sell

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13 Jul 2026 05:08:34 ET │ 15 pages

Estun (002747.SZ)

Fundamentals Improve But Share Price Seems Overshooting; Maintain

Sell

CITI'S TAKE

We raise 2026E/27E earnings by 70%/26% to reflect Estun’s better GPM Sell

profile and asset disposal gains as well as investment income in 2026; we

introduce 2028E. Estun is diversifying its customer base away from key Price (13 Jul 26 15:00) Rmb38.500

customers such as BYD (1211.HK) to improve its GPM; however, we expect Target price Rmb28.000↑

Estun to still book ~Rmb20mn in impairment loss due to deteriorating

from Rmb13.800receivables quality of leading NEV customers. We also estimate non-

operating income to reduce from ~Rmb100mn in 1Q26 to Rmb10mn in Expected share price return -27.3%

2Q26E without significant asset revaluation gains in 2Q26E (Rmb70mn in Expected dividend yield 0.0%

1Q26). As such, we project Estun’s 2Q26E net profit to be Rmb26mn, 29%

Expected total return -27.3%below Bloomberg consensus. As Estun’s share price is up ~80% YTD, we

think weaker-than-expected 2Q26 results could be a near-term negative Market Cap Rmb33,534M

catalyst. Maintain Sell and prefer Leader Drive (688017.SS) over Estun US$4,954M

among high P/E automation and robotics names.

2Q26E preview – We forecast Estun’s gross profit to grow by 34% YoY to Rmb473mn

in 2Q26E on 15% YoY revenue growth and 4.5pp YoY GPM expansion, which would Price Performance

be driven by both cost reduction (i.e., procuring more reducers from low-cost

(RIC: 002747.SZ, BB: 002747 CH)suppliers) and customer diversification (i.e., penetrating Seres and Geely to diversify

from BYD). However, our net profit estimate of Rmb26mn (up 538% YoY from