Money Forward Q2 First Impression - Slightly Positive

Research evidence excerpt

Money Forward Q2 First Impression - Slightly Positive

how healthy and steady momentum.

AI Products Coming Soon – MF showcased its AI product pipeline and plans to launch Money

Forward AI Coworker later this month. While earnings impact is likely to begin next fiscal year,

the company is targeting ¥15bn of AI-related ARR by 2030. A successful launch of AI Coworker

would make this target more credible.

Q3/FY implications:

The Damage/Costs from the GitHub Security Incident Will be Most Visible in Q3: The GitHub

security incident is expected to have its largest impact in Q3, with the overall revenue impact

estimated at approximately ¥150mn. MF already recorded ¥90mn in extraordinary losses in Q2

related to the incident. However, management remains confident that the associated costs can

be absorbed, given the company's strong sales momentum. The incident temporarily pushed

the churn rate up to 3% in May, but it has since returned to around 2%. Management also noted

that promotional activities were suspended during the incident period.

Raises FY Guidance – Positive: MF raised its FY guidance, driven primarily by stronger-than-

expected revenue trends. The company revised its revenue outlook to ¥60.5bn–¥62.3bn, above

consensus (Table 1), supported by ¥2.1bn in gains on sales of investment securities to be

recognized in the Finance segment in Q3, continued strength in the credit card business (¥3bn–

¥4bn contribution), and approximately ¥1bn from newly consolidated group companies. On

the profit side, despite additional security-related expenses, the revenue upside more than

offsets these costs, leading to a higher adjusted EBITDA outlook. The revised operating profit

forecast also incorporates goodwill amortization expenses arising from M&A transactions. For