Delta Air Lines (DAL) 2Q26: Taking numbers up on strong booking curve and pricing backdrop, raise PT to $106

Research evidence excerpt

Delta Air Lines (DAL) 2Q26: Taking numbers up on strong booking curve and pricing backdrop, raise PT to $106

premium products; and even though it’s early, 4Q bookings are already coming in strong. Alongside

capacity growth discipline at DAL and industry-wide (DAL pointing to very moderate ASM growth of ~1% in 3Q and 2-3% in 4Q

as we already anticipated before the print), and a low-cost carrier environment plagued by high costs / difficulty covering cost of

capital, elevated yield growth seems increasingly sustainable. As such, YoY TRASM growth is now expected to actually accelerate

in 3Q from 2Q’s ~12.4% (we were previously modeling growth similar to 2Q’s levels) and DAL’s outsized 4Q earnings expectation

signals higher conviction in fares moderating less than fuel prices and DAL retaining a portion of that as earnings.

Looking further out, upgauging efficiency gains (e.g. with MAX10 deliveries) and international capacity expansion in Middle East /

Asia will be in focus, new Amazon Leo satellite installations should improve internet offering by year-end, and premium product

expansion will remain a priority (already, capacity in premium — which boasts higher load factors — is +LSDs, while main cabin is

down 2-3%), all as the company marches toward a mid-teens op margin.

We take up our numbers to reflect the 2Q beat and greater confidence in elevated airfares holding up even as fuel prices come

down. We remain a bit more cautious on 4Q than the guide implies, keeping our adj. EPS ~3% below the implied $2.54 (as this

marked a sizable uplift from expectations / translated into a particularly strong 4Q vs. history), landing us slightly below (-1%) the

FY26G midpoint of $7 (Exhibit 7 through Exhibit 9) and 13% ahead of consensus estimates which should come up as models get