1H26 Preview: Well-Set Into Print

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 Preview: Well-Set Into Print

adly resilient. Following value share gains in F25, 2026 (p) 1HalfA 2HalfA FY

the US combustibles business appears to have lost -35bps share in 1H26, per Nielsen, given EPS 159.90 194.50 354.40

market downtrading trends. However, we believe, in a scenario where share losses remain PREV 356.20

muted, BAT can continue delivering top-line growth in US Combustibles (F26E vols/revs -8%/

+1%), underpinning the F26 guidance.

Exhibit 1 - Velo's volume growth remained

Modern Oral: Velo pricing robust as volume-leading performance continues. We expect a robust in June, leading the category as ZYN

strong profitability ramp-up in US Oral Nicotine Pouches given 1) Velo drove >80% of volume saw volume declines. Altria's on! continued to

growth in US Oral Nicotine Pouches in 1H26, 2) The brand registered c. +20% price/mix gains as register volume declines

YoY volume growth (m units) by brand

it lapped introductory discounts from 1H25. We model group 1H26 US ONP vols/value growth 16m 14.7m 14.5m 14.2m

+170%/+210%. 14m12m

10m

eVapes: Robust 1H volume and price/mix likely, with more to come in 2H26. We expect a 8m6m

1.8mstrong half thanks to improved vols and the successful passing of +MSD pricing growth in 4m2m 0.4m 0.6m 0.5m 0.3m

September 2025 as illicit product enforcement improved, and we model group 1H26 US eVape -2m0m -1.1m -1.1m -1.2m -1.1m

-4m

ZYN Velo on! Zonevols/value growth +6%/+13%. Furthermore, we believe the company should continue gaining

share in the category in the next 18 months as it launches flavoured eVapes in 3Q26. .Source: NielsenIQ, JefferiesApr-26 May-26 Jun-26

Heated Tobacco: Not glo-ing. We model group HTP 1H26 vols/value -15.1%/-14.8% given de- Exhibit 2 - Velo has seen significant price/mix