Credit Bureaus—Card, Mortgage, Auto, and Consumer Volumes Quarterly (2026-Q2)

Research evidence excerpt

Credit Bureaus—Card, Mortgage, Auto, and Consumer Volumes Quarterly (2026-Q2)

USA | Technology & Information Services EquityJulyResearch12, 2026

Chart 1 - We expect card volumes to increaseCredit Bureaus—Card, Mortgage, Auto, and

LSD y/y in 2026 as credit remains tight.

120Consumer Volumes Quarterly (2026-Q2) 100

60We update our outlook for 2026 credit origination volumes, which collectively Millions

underpin our EFX, EXPN, TRU, and FICO models. For 2026, our mortgage 4020

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Evolumes estimate has been lowered to +5% y/y (from +7% y/y). Elsewhere, we Total Credit Card Originations

Source: Equifax, Jefferies Estimateshave kept our volume outlook for auto, cards, and consumer loans despite the .

now higher risk of rate increases. Chart 2 - We expect mortgage originations to

increase +5% y/y in 2026, mostly by refinance

Credit Cards: We expect volumes in 2026 to increase by +2% y/y, unchanged from our outlook activity from the relatively lower rates in the

first half of 2026.

last quarter, as credit conditions remain tight (Chart 1). We see upside potential from consumer 20

resiliency, but there's also increasing risk that rates increase before year-end, which could put 1816

downward pressure on volumes. In terms of credit quality, prime volumes increased +3% y/y last 141210 Millions 8quarter after a 2-year downward, aided by easy comps, while subprime volumes were up +15% y/y, 6

extending the recovery seen over 2025 after nearly three years of declines. For Prime, Private Label 42

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Eremains as a headwind. Total Mortgage Originations

.

Source: Equifax, Jefferies Estimates