Protectionist Actions on Low-Value E-Commerce Imports into EU a Positive

Research evidence excerpt

Protectionist Actions on Low-Value E-Commerce Imports into EU a Positive

Paper & Packaging

Equity Research

July 12, 2026

Low EU consumer confidence, elevated savings rate & muted retail trade volumes: With c60%

of EU box volumes to F&B and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) end markets, consumer

confidence, savings rate & retail trade volumes are key indicators.

Consumer confidence remains low and negative (Exhibit 4). It has not recovered since COVID•

lockdown spending ended, and was exacerbated from the start of the Russia/Ukraine war in

1Q22, which drove up EU energy (gas) costs and wider cost inflation globally.

Retail value vs volume index - value but not volume growth (Exhibit 5). Retailers, producers•

& consumer goods companies raised prices to offset inflation from 2Q22, and we have seen

retail travel value ($) spending increase, driven by price hikes. Retail trade volumes (which is

more reflective of box volume trends) have been stagnant or lower since 1H22 post COVID

and Russia/Ukraine war inflation shock.

EU household savings rates are elevated in 1Q26 vs long term averages (Exhibit 6), given•

macro uncertainty. Positively, higher savings imply available consumer spending capacity for

goods when consumer confidence ultimately improves and cost inflation moderates.

Exhibit 7 - EU Production of Consumer Goods (2020 =100) Exhibit 8 - EU Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI

120 55

100 50

80 45

60 40

Consumer durables Consumer non-durables EU Manufacturing PMI EU Services PMI

. .

Source: Eurostat, Factset, Jefferies Source: Markit Economics, Factset, Jefferies

Illustrative containerboard demand headwind from importing boxes: We estimate the average

loaded weight per container is 10-25mT, depending on the cargo for consumer goods into a 40ft

container (TEU).