Raising estimates again

Research evidence excerpt

Raising estimates again

USA | Autos & Auto Parts

Tesla, Inc. EquityJulyResearch12, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGERaising estimates again

We raise estimates again after Q2's significant auto volume beat. The strength RATING HOLD

of Q2 volume in China and Europe seems to validate both the unique value PRICE $407.76^

proposition of Tesla vehicles and the risk of vehicle commoditization over time. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $400.00 ($375.00) | -2%

Underproduction should help Q2 cash flow but low implied Cybercab output 52W HIGH-LOW $498.83 - $297.82

also suggests more delays in ramping up Robotaxis. We raise Q2 EBIT to FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 74.5% | 18,922.57

$1.45bn (5.1% margin), outer years' EBIT by ~ 6% and PT to $400. MARKET CAP $1.4T

TICKER TSLA

Volume performance in Q2 beat the most optimistic expectations, confirming the value proposition ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

of Tesla vehicles in terms of price and efficiency despite relatively modest product innovation in

recent years. This in turn appears to validate Tesla's view on cars becoming commodities and the

logic of winding down investment in personal vehicles, but not too fast pending new growth areas. FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

2025 2026 2025 2026

With reported Q2 deliveries (480.1k units, o/w Models 3/Y 467.8k) largely exceeding consensus

REV NA NM +1% -9%

of 406k and the 415k estimates we had set mid June, we increase auto revenue further to $21bn

EPS NA +3% -23% -38%

including $250m and $500m for ZEV and Leasing. Non repeat of Q1's fx and warranty benefit

should keep Auto GM slightly below Q1 (JEFe 18%). Slightly better BESS deployment helps take

2025 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

our group revenue to $28.7bn and Group EBIT to $1.45bn. We assume cash burn $3.0bn on capex