2Q26 Preview - Update Expected on Iraq, LNG Conversion, and Hub & Spoke Model

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview - Update Expected on Iraq, LNG Conversion, and Hub & Spoke Model

USA | LNG

Excelerate Energy EquityJulyResearch10, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE2Q26 Preview - Update Expected on Iraq, LNGC

RATING BUYConversion, and Hub & Spoke Model

PRICE $38.33^

We forecast EE to report EBITDA of $120mn, in line with Cons, and capex of

$255mn, ~2% above Cons. The higher QoQ capex is driven by the final Acadia PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $48.00 ($44.00) | +25%

sail-away payment (~$220mn). We expect investors look for commentary 52W HIGH-LOW $43.18 - $21.29

from EE's mgmt on the conditions required to restart construction in Iraq. We FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 94.4% | 14.77

anticipate EE to provide an update on the LNGC Conversion, adding it to the MARKET CAP $1.3B

committed capex outlook, and announce progress on expanding the Hub & TICKER EE ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Spoke business model. noted.

2Q26 Preview. We expect EE to report EBITDA of $120mn, in line with Cons at $120mn, as earnings FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

remain stable given the LT take-or-pay business model despite volatility in the LNG macro. We 2026 2027 2026 2027

expect capex of $255mn in 2Q26, ~2% above Cons of $250mn. Our capex estimate incorporates EBITDA -3% -2% NM +6%

$240mn of growth capex, with ~$220mn tied to the Acadia final sail-away payment. We also model

EPS -4% -3% NA NA

maintenance capex at $17mn in 2Q26, and expect maintenance spending to accelerate in 2H26 as

vessels enter dry-docking.

2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

2Q26 Themes: EPS 0.37 0.42 0.44 0.42 1.65

PREV 0.48 0.45 1.73

(1) Iraq & Jordan Projects. While the Iraq project delay to '27 was announced last quarter (LINK),

we expect investors to look for commentary from mgmt on what conditions are needed to restart