Cheniere Energy: 2Q26 Preview - Low Maintenance & Strong Operations

Research evidence excerpt

Cheniere Energy: 2Q26 Preview - Low Maintenance & Strong Operations

USA | LNG

Cheniere Energy EquityJulyResearch10, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGE2Q26 Preview - Low Maintenance & Strong

RATING BUYOperations

PRICE $261.29^

We forecast 2Q26 EBITDA of $1,805mn, ~7% above Cons, as operational

performance remains strong and volumes high due to limited maintenance. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $330.00 | +26%

CCL3 timing continues to accelerate, and there is potential for Midscale T8-9 52W HIGH-LOW $300.89 - $186.20

to move ahead of schedule. While optimization opportunities remain, Cheniere FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 98.9% | 599.41

notes more limited QoQ opportunities as 1Q was unique with Winter Storm MARKET CAP $55.0B

Fern. Earnings focus: (1) LNG Macro, (2) Train Timing, (3) Contracting, (4) TICKER LNG ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Optimization. noted.

Operations. We expect Cheniere to report volumes loaded of 685Tbtu, ~2% above Cons of 672Tbtu, FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

as operational performance remains strong following the increase to annual production guidance 2026 2027 2026 2027

last quarter (LINK). Notably, Cheniere had no major turnarounds at both Sabine Pass and Corpus EBITDA -2% -1% NA NA

Christi, but volumes loaded are slightly lower QoQ due to seasonal factors and minor shoulder

EPS -13% -2% NA NA

season maintenance. This is offset by CCL3 ramping. In our model, we forecast volumes delivered

as revenues at 691Tbtu. We do not expect Cheniere to repeat the large inflow of volumes from third

2026 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

parties from 1Q26 at 36Tbtu with volumes normalizing to 6Tbtu. We expect an uptick in volumes

EPS (16.64) 3.48 3.45 3.50 (6.75)

sold on LT contracts due to the start-up of the CPC SPA and EOG IPM agreement.

PREV 3.90 3.69 3.62 (6.00)