Canada Mining Weekly: Started From the Bottom

Research evidence excerpt

Canada Mining Weekly: Started From the Bottom

Canada | Metals & Mining EquityJulyResearch10, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Canada Mining Weekly: Started From the

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETBottom

EDV CN BUY C$108.00

A choppy week for gold, but $4,000/oz remains a key support level, or "bottom." KGC BUY $38.00

We maintain our base case that gold will rebound in 2H and end the year at IVN CN HOLD C$12.00

$4,600/oz, driven by the market repricing rates, and central banks continuing CS CN BUY C$21.00

to buy at a strong clip. Lots of company-specific news this week, mostly 2Q FNV HOLD $230.00

production/sales pre-releases that skewed heavily towards beats. High level,

2Q will be the first quarter in years when margins contract q/q.

Commodity commentary. Gold was volatile this week based on headlines of escalations between KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

the US and Iran and an end to the ceasfire - every time this happens, the market knee-jerk reaction TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

appears to be oil moves higher, rate expectations increase, and gold trades lower. As we've written

FNV HOLD $230.00 ($245.00)

before, we think the market is assigning a very low probability to the following near-term bullish

scenario for gold: inflation remains elevated (e.g., 3+%), but the Fed keeps rates unchanged due to

political motivations and fiscal implications, resulting in lower real rates and higher gold. We find it

difficult to see rates moving higher this year because of the political and fiscal consequences. US

midterm elections are in November, and the current US national debt is ~$40 trillion, resulting in

net interest payments that are ~15% of total federal outlays, more than annual defense spending.

Central bank gold demand in May was at the second-highest level this year.