2Q26 Preview - Refining & Chemicals Margins Supportive

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview - Refining & Chemicals Margins Supportive

ovement in earnings; however, the earnings impact from gas prices was less material at +/- ~

$0.2bn tied to lower HH pricing and XOM's LNG is primarily on LT oil-linked contracts. XOM expects XOM 2Q26 Earnings Guidance

1Q26 EarningsGAAP Upstream5.7 Products(1.3) Chemicals0.1 Specialty0.7 Corporate(1.1) Total4.2 EarningsGuidanceItemsa ~$0.8-0.6bn loss tied to lower volumes from the Middle East conflict. We forecast production XOM IdentifiedTiming 0.00.5 0.73.4 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.00.0

1Q26 AdjustedEffects Earnings excl Identified Items 6.2 2.8 0.1 0.7 (1.1) 8.8 0.73.9 1.002.090.170.93EPS

End

2Q26Market LowFactors QoQof ~4.35mmboepd, as significant Qatari and other Middle Eastern volumes remain impacted from

Prices 3.5 3.5

Prices (0.2) NANA NANA NANA (0.2) LiquidsGasDownstream Margins NA 2.0 1.0 0.3 NANANA 3.3

Maintenance Other QoQ

& Maintenancethe conflict, but note volumes impacted by Storm Fern and disruptions in Kazakhstan will return.

ScheduledDisruptions in Middle East (0.2)(0.8) (0.4)(0.4) (0.1)(0.1) (0.1)(0.3) NANA (0.8)(1.6)

Identified Items

Effects (0.3) 2.2 NA 1.9

NA NANA NANATiming effects are expected at +/- ~$0.3bn QoQ compared to a ~$528mn impact in 1Q26.

Reserves (0.1) (0.1) (0.2)(0.1) TimingImpairmentsOtherOther FinancialMiddle East Impacts (1.4)(0.1) (1.0)(0.2)(0.3) NA NA NA (1.2)(1.9)(0.4)

2Q26Market HighFactors QoQ

Prices

Prices 3.90.2 NANA NANA LiquidsGasDownstream Margins NA 2.4 NANA 1.2 0.5 NANANA 3.90.24.1Downstream. For Energy Products, XOM's 8-K puts Adjusted Net Income at a ~$4.0-4.8bn (~$4.4bn Maintenance Other QoQ

& Maintenance 0.0 0.1 0.0

ScheduledDisruptions in Middle East (0.6) (0.2)(0.2) 0.10.1 (0.1) NANA (0.8)

Effects 3.0 NA 3.3midpoint) with JEFe at ~$4.6bn.