2Q26 Preview - Upstream Outages Resolved & Downstream Capture Supportive

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview - Upstream Outages Resolved & Downstream Capture Supportive

USA | Integrated Oil

Chevron EquityJulyResearch10, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE2Q26 Preview - Upstream Outages Resolved &

RATING BUYDownstream Capture Supportive

PRICE $174.05^

We forecast CVX to report Adj EPS of ~$5.86/sh, ~9% above Cons. In Upstream,

the operational challenges from 1Q26 are largely resolved leading to higher PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $216.00 ($236.00) | +24%

production, while Downstream benefits from high capture on surging cracks 52W HIGH-LOW $214.71 - $146.49

and an unwind of timing effects. Cash flow generation is also buoyed by affiliate FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 107.2% | 1,662.35

dividends and WC tailwinds. Earnings focus: (1) Data Center Deal, (2) West MARKET CAP $321.8B

Qurna 2 and M&A, (3) Macro, (4) Argentina's RIGI, (5) Operational Performance. TICKER CVX ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Upstream. We expect CVX to report Upstream Adj Earnings of ~$8.1bn with ~$3.6bn in the US

and ~$4.5bn in International. Following disruptions to production in 1Q26 with the TCO outage,

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

Storm Fern downtime, and disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East (Leviathan & Partition

2026 2027 2026 2027

Zone) we expect production to recover in 2Q26 to ~4,033mboepd (~64% Liquids). Notably, TCO

produced at full rates during quarter. However, we highlight minor cyclone related disruptions at REV NA NA NA NA

Wheatstone, Partition Zone / Leviathan outages, and under-lifting to balance some of the upside EPS +2% -5% NA NA

from more stable operational performance. Mgmt note that the challenges at Wheatstone and

Leviathan are resolved while the Partition Zone continues to be impacted by the conflict in the 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY