US Leisure: Powersports – Solid and Less-Promotional 2Q Growth for HOG and PII

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US Leisure: Powersports – Solid and Less-Promotional 2Q Growth for HOG and PII

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10 Jul 2026 08:16:43 ET │ 32 pages

US Leisure

Powersports – Solid and Less-Promotional 2Q Growth for HOG and PII

CITI'S TAKE

Leisure

Our most recent dealer checks for ORVs and motorcycles point to modest

2Q growth in both categories, which is more than can be said for other James Hardiman AC

leisure product categories, as ongoing inflationary headwinds and high-for- +1-212-816-4035

longer rates are much less of a drag on these categories than boats and RVs. james.hardiman@citi.com

Our PII/DOO estimates are unchanged (and ahead of the Street) while our

HOG estimates are higher. To the latter, we have been encouraged by the Sean Wagner

early days of new-CEO Artie Starrs, who appears to be prioritizing dealer +1-212-519-8834

inventories over short-term earnings in an effort to re-establish HOG’s sean.wagner@citi.com

value proposition. However, we will need more evidence of a durable

inflection, as two solid quarters pale in comparison to the last decade plus

of sliding demand amidst secular/demographic headwinds.

We estimate that Polaris ORV retail units were up low-single digits in North

America, similar to the +3% in 1Q. While on a different calendar and to a different

magnitude, we believe DOO has followed a similar monthly path, with modest

growth in April followed by small declines in May and a flattish June.

Our 1Q PII estimate is unchanged at $0.82, which is $0.11 ahead of the Street’s

(VA) $0.71. We would expect at least a portion of a significantly better-than-guided

1H get flow to through to the full-year number, as our $2.18 estimate remains ahead

of the Street’s $1.86, and more comfortably ahead of the guided range of $1.60-

$1.70.

We estimate that Harley-Davidson U.S.