PowerPoints: BE Short Report, XEL, CPX/META, AES M&A, SRE, TLN M&A, DOE, & More

Research evidence excerpt

PowerPoints: BE Short Report, XEL, CPX/META, AES M&A, SRE, TLN M&A, DOE, & More

mp assumptions require

between 150 and 220 tons of scandium oxide annually to reach Street 5 GW expectations, while

Western supply is capped at 100 to 120 tons, and total projected global supply through 2030 is only 240

tons, with the majority originating from China.If China reinstates tighter export controls after November

2026, over 60% of global supply availability could be affected, exposing Bloom’s growth and earnings to

significant downside risk. BE has publicly responded that its plan does not rely on China.

China currently requires export licenses for scandium shipments abroad under rules first introduced

in April 2025, which cover direct exports from China and already give Beijing significant control over

outbound flows. In October 2025, China expanded these restrictions to include an extraterritorial

provision: any scandium product, even if refined or processed outside China, is captured if it contains

any amount of Chinese-origin material. This doubled the points at which China could control supply

movement first for exports from China, then again if that material is re-exported from a third country such

as Japan to end users like Bloom in the United States. However, the expanded, extraterritorial controls

were temporarily suspended for one year following a US-China summit, leaving only the original export

license regime in force with a single control point between China and Japan. If this suspension lapses

on November 10, 2026, a double “licensing gate” is created, with approvals required both for initial exports

from China and for downstream re-exports. This structure would make the entire non-Chinese scandium