Scaling Mt Firmus: Upgrade to Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Scaling Mt Firmus: Upgrade to Buy

Australia | Engineering & Construction

Maas Group Holdings EquityJulyResearch10, 2026

RATING | TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEScaling Mt Firmus: Upgrade to Buy

MGH has undergone marked changes in the past year, with the net A$1.4b RATING BUY (HOLD)

sale of Construction Materials (expected to settle Oct), doubling down on PRICE AUD5.52^

Commercial RE, and the equity stake/contract with Firmus. It's likely to re- PRICE TARGET | % TO PT AUD6.40 (AUD5.50) |

enter quarrying & pursue other M&A. The CM sale was well timed, but MGH's +16%

52W HIGH-LOW AUD5.92 - AUD3.65

strategic future is opaque. We view Firmus as the biggest delta. Thus, we

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 36.0% | 8.71

boost Firmus rev flow, driving FY27-28 EPS +11% and +7%. New PT A$6.40

MARKET CAP AUD2.0B | AUD2.0B

(A$5.50). Upgrade to Buy.

TICKER MGH AU

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

Firmus is MGH's biggest delta, but clarity is low. Firmus has proposed ~1.6GW of Australian noted.

capacity by FY28, and potentially ~3GW out to FY32 and beyond (includes South Australia,

ex Indonesia). The rollout timetable remains uncertain. Allocation between own-build and 3rd-

party DC-hosted remains uncertain. Impact on the rev/MW opportunity of 3rd-party DC vs own- FY (Jun) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

build remains uncertain. And although MGH is one of only two named power/electrical supply 2026 2027 2026 2027

chain partners on Firmus' website, MGH's likely win rate on Firmus projects remains uncertain. REV NA +7% -1% +9%

EPS NA +11% -5% +39%

All these variables require assumptions on our part when modelling MGH. To this end, of the

~A$3b revenue TAM that Firmus' 1.6MW Australian rollout implies in terms of MGH's capability 2026 (AUD) 1Half 2Half FY