Neighbourhood Watch. D/G to Hold

Research evidence excerpt

Neighbourhood Watch. D/G to Hold

Terminal Utilisation

Hay Point Coal Terminal: The nameplate capacity of HPCT is currently ~55mt, having (mtpa)

completed a significant increase (Hay Point Expansion Stage 3) from 44mtpa in 2015. The Throuput Nameplate

49.5average annualised monthly throughput of HPCT over the last few years has been 37mt, 6050 44 44 44 44 44 44 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55

46 44 43allowing capacity for additional throughput, but also greater terminal optimisation between the 40 41 43 48 43 50 49 50

two terminals. 30 35 36 33 32 34 36 36 37

How much would HPCT cost? Built in 1971, the two major capital projects of HPCT 10

have been the 11mt expansion for ~$2.45bn and the $850 million shiploader and berth 0 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26

replacement project in 2022. We expect the current RAB is ~$2.5bn, albeit with some upcoming .Source: NQBP, Jefferies

maintenance cost for one of the shiploaders that would be built into a form of NECAP. The

ultimate price paid would reflect the TIC charge for BMA, and the ability to socialise a higher Figure 2 - Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Key

FinancialsTIC cost for the access to the additional expansion throughput.

A$mn FY26E FY27E FY28E

Total revenue 876.9 925.5 969.4HPCT Funding: Any such acquisition would be funded by a material capital raise. The benefit EBITDA 325.4 367.1 403.9

of such an approach would be the removal of the construction risk of 8X. However, depending NPAT 130.6 140.2 157.2

on the discount, we could also expect a capital raise to be taken positively given the index up DPS (Acps) 27.8 29.8 31.8

weight of DBI and the broadening of the shareholder base. % change 12.9% 7.0% 7.0%

PE (x) 20.6 19.2 17.1

EV / EBITDA (x) 14.5 13.2 12.1