Searching For A Silver Lining: French Infrastructure | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

Searching For A Silver Lining: French Infrastructure | Europe

Idea

July 10, 2026 04:45 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MFrench Infrastructure | Europe Nicolas J Mora

Equity Analyst

Searching For A Silver Lining Nicolas.Mora@morganstanley.comCedar Ekblom, CFA +44 20 7677-5376

Cedar.Ekblom@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4623

What’s Changed Axel Stasse

Getlink (GETP.PA) From To Equity Analyst

Axel.Stasse@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2429

Price Target €18.50 €20.20

Daniel Khajenouri

Vinci SA (SGEF.PA) Equity Analyst

Price Target €145.00 €143.00 Daniel.Khajenouri@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3065

Groupe ADP (ADP.PA) Transport

Price Target €130.00 €140.00 Europe

Industry View In-Line

Eiffage SA (FOUG.PA)

Price Target €186.00 €177.00

French Macro/tax/politics risks continue to weigh on our French

coverage universe. Lackluster earnings momentum is unhelpful.

We prefer company-specific situations (ADP/regulation,

improving earnings power into 2027e). Eiffage deep-value but no

obvious ST catalyst. Getlink our oil-price hedge.

Key Takeaways

Little market appetite to dip its toes into French Contractors/Infra plays on

Macro/tax (2027 budget)/politics (Presidential elections in Apr/May-27) risks

No real ST earnings momentum across the sub-sector … and risk of (modest)

downgrades post 2Q/1H earnings (motorway/airports traffic, soft French services

revs)

Into earnings, our Order of Preference goes: ADP > Getlink > Eiffage > Vinci >

Bouygues.

ADP (OW, PT raised to €140) - company-specific angle: partial regulatory de-

risking (update on ERA IV proposal) + cost effort buying time before earnings

upturn

Exhibit 1: French Infrastructure - Wrap-up of latest changes / valuation

Company Reco. PT Upside P/E Divi yield (+ share bb) FCFE yield Implied KPI KPI changes NI changes